Hazard distribution and risk assessment in the network systems

摘要

In the age when transport flows in the railway and road systems, information flows in the internet channels, etc. intensify, hazard distribution in the network systems becomes a more relevant and important issue. In the paper various theoretical hazard type distributions in the network systems are analysed. Conditions and assumptions that hazard in the network system cells would settle and became steady are defined. Cases are analysed, when hazard is initiated in one or several network nodes, while in other nodes hazard is decreased, i.e. they have immunity to the hazard. In all cases hazard distribution equilibrium equations are constructed and their solutions' existence conditions are defined. Theoretical results are illustrated by simulation of hazard fuel transportation in the Lithuanian roads. It is shown that using this methodology it is possible to construct an algorithm, which enables to operate and decrease fuel transportation hazard and risk. The novelty of the work is associated with employing Markov process to describe hazard distribution mechanism and to determine limited hazard distribution in the nodes of networks. The hazard of tank trucks in the network of Lithuanian roads has been assessed for the first time.