Production costs estimation in photovoltaic power plants using reliability

摘要

This paper proposes a new methodology for estimating the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and availability of a photovoltaic plant using Reliability. Traditional LCOE estimation method uses arbitrary percentage of invested capital (CAPEX) as maintenance costs. Moreover, the delivered energy calculation does not include the production loss due to events that stops production (corrective and preventive maintenance). To address these issues the proposed model includes the throughput of each component, operations costs, crew and spare parts management strategy, statistical models for times and failures. The results of a case study with three different topologies show that the maintenance costs varies from US$ 7978.54 to US$ 16,271.06; LCOE from 115.31 US$/MW h to 150.67 US$/MW h and availability from 98.53% to 99.01%. Finally, when compared to the usual LCOE estimation method, the highest difference is observed for the String Inverter topology where the energy cost is 10.11% higher. These variations indicates that the topology and operations strategy have appreciable impact in LCOE. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.