Flood Risk in Central Europe

摘要

During the past two decades, several extreme floods have occurred in Central European rivers (including the Rhine, Danube, Odra, and Wisla), culminating in the disastrous August 2002 flood in the Elbe River basin and parts of the Danube basin. Rough cost estimates for the Elbe 2002 flood alone are ～$3 billion in the Czech Republic and >$9 billion in Germany (1). Flood damages of this magnitude have never occurred in Europe before (2). Ten extreme floods have been observed in Dresden since the 13th century, with flood peak water levels between 8.2 and 8.8 m (3). The August 2002 flood exceeded all these levels with a peak water level of 9.4 m. The corresponding peak discharge, estimated from stream flow measurements in Dresden, was ～4680 m~3/s (4). Surprisingly, in 1845, a higher flood flow (5700 m~3/s) was measured, yet the peak water level (8.8 m) was lower; this can only be explained by reductions of the flow capacity of the flood plains below the Dresden gauge, for example, as a result of settlement development.