Can an improved city development index explain real development? A case study of Xian, one of the four ancient civilizations of the world

摘要

One difficulty in protecting historical and cultural cities in developing countries is the need to improve both the level of urban sustainable development and the rational use of historical and cultural resources. Currently, the city development index (CDI) ignores the fact that urban resources are being consumed at a rapidly increasing rate, and it is further unable to measure the coordination between urban development and ecosystems. The case study selected Xi'an, and calculated its CDI and ecological footprint per capita (ef), carbon footprint per capita (cf) and water footprint per capita (wf) in 2007-2017. A decoupling analysis was applied. The results showed only an 18.29% increase in the CDI, while the increase in the per capita values of the footprint family indicators are 38.97%, 44.41 %, and 42.95%, respectively, which characterize the conflict between developing cities and maintaining urban ecosystems. There is no real decoupling between the CDI and the footprint family indicators, reflecting the dynamic reciprocal characteristics of "strong decoupling, expansive decoupling, weak decoupling, recessive decoupling" and indicating a very unstable situation. The analysis confirmed that the changes in the CDI and the footprint family indicators are the same as the left half of the inverted "U" of the "Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)" that has not yet reached its "inflection point". This discovery helps to focus attention on the role of restoring urban ecosystems to support urban development. To this end, policy suggestions are proposed to improve urban land use efficiency, encourage low-carbon energy structure to improve energy use efficiency, improve urban carbon sequestration capacity, and implement differential water prices. This study compensates for the inability of the CDI to express the state of urban ecosystems and helps enhance the understanding of the inclusive sustainable development of cities in developing countries, which embodies human well-being.