Building a stakeholder's vision of an offshore wind-farm project: A group modeling approach

摘要

This paper describes a Group Model Building (GMB) initiative that was designed to discuss the various potential effects that an offshore wind-farm may have on its local ecology and socioeconomic development. The representatives of various organizations in the study area, Lu-Kang, Taiwan, have held several meetings, and structured debates have been organized to promote the emergence of a consensual view on the main issues and their implications. A System Dynamics (SD) model has been built and corrected iteratively with the participants through the GMB process. The diverse interests within the group led the process toward the design of multifunctional wind-farms with different modalities. The scenario analyses, using the SD model under various policies, including no wind-farm policy, objectively articulates the vision of the local stakeholders. The results of the SD simulations show that the multifunctional wind-farms may have superior economic effects and the larger wind-farms with bird corridors could reduce ecological impact. However, the participants of the modeling process did not appreciate any type of offshore wind-farm development when considering all of the identified key factors of social acceptance. The insight gained from the study can provide valuable information to actualize feasible strategies for the green energy technique to meet local expectations.