Capturing the stakeholders' managerial competency risks of mega infrastructure projects: a fuzzy logic modelling approach

摘要

This paper develops a fuzzy-logic model to aggregate the numerous managerial risks driven by the various project stakeholders at different project stages. The model accounts for the various perceptions of assessors involved in the risk evaluation process. The proposed model provides means for performing scenario analysis at an early project procurement stage to manage macro risks. Four managerial processes or competencies were considered as critical success factors for infrastructure projects. These are communication, coordination, knowledge sharing and decision-making. A Sugeno fuzzy logic model was calibrated using three input variables representing the importance of the various projects stakeholder groups, the criticalness level of the management process as perceived by the various groups at the various project stages, and the effectiveness level of the management competency. The model was validated using surveys of various stakeholder groups of a mega project.