基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法

摘要

风险评估是软件项目风险管理的重要内容。利用成本估算模型中已有的专家知识和启发信息进行风险评估的RiskMethod方法是一种较优的风险分析方法，但是实际项目中存在的模糊性信息对分析数据的准确性影响较大，导致评估结果的可信度降低。将模糊逻辑应用于RiskMethod方法中，使用COCOMO II模型的成本驱动作为每个风险事件的对应驱动，将评估的输入量使用三角模糊数的方法模糊化成模糊输入量，将评估结果使用重心方法去模糊化成输出量，从而提出了基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法，并通过实例说明了方法在实际项目中应用的可行性。%Risk evaluation is an important part of software project risk management .RiskMethod is regar-ded as a better risk evaluation method which using the known expert knowledge and heuristic information in the cost estimation model .But there are many fuzzy information in the actual project which have an effect on the veracity of the data ,so the risk evaluation results may be not exact .In this paper ,we apply fuzzy logic to the RiskMethod and present a risk assessment method for software project using fuzzy logic . In this method we use cost drivers in the COCOMO II as the drivers of the risk events ,use the triangular fuzzy number as a fuzzification method and the COG as a defuzzification method .At last ,a scenario pres-ents the feasibility of this method using in the actual software project .