Evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use change on the hydrology and nutrient yield in a transboundary river basin: A case study in the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok)

摘要

Assessment of the climate and land-use change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of a river basin is important for the development and management of water resources in the future. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological regime and nutrient yield from the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Srepok, and Sesan) into the 3S River system in Southeast Asia. The 3S Rivers are important tributaries of the Lower Mekong River, accounting for 16% of its annual flow. This transboundary basin supports the livelihoods of nearly 3.5 million people in the countries of Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. To reach a better understanding of the process and fate of pollution (nutrient yield) as well as the hydrological regime, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water quality and discharge in the 3S River Basin. Future scenarios were developed for three future periods: 2030s (2015-2039), 2060s (2045-2069), and 2090s (2075-2099), using an ensemble of five GCMs (General Circulation Model) simulations: (HadGEM2-AO, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR), driven by the climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways): RCP4.5 (medium emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios, and two land-use change scenarios. The results indicated that the climate in the study area would generally become warmer and wetter under both emission scenarios. Discharge and nutrient yield is predicted to increase in the wet season and decrease in the dry. Overall, the annual discharge and nutrient yield is projected to increase throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting sensitivity in the 3S River Basin to climate and land-use change. The results of this study can assist water resources managers and planners in developing water management strategies for uncertain climate change scenarios in the 3S River Basin.