Probabilistic evaluation of the water footprint of a river basin: Accounting method and case study in the Segura River Basin, Spain

摘要

In the current study a method for the probabilistic accounting of the water footprint (WF) at the river basin level has been proposed and developed. It is based upon the simulation of the anthropised water cycle and combines a hydrological model and a decision support system. The methodology was carried out in the Segura River Basin (SRB) in South-eastern Spain, and four historical scenarios were evaluated (1998–2010–2015–2027). The results indicate that the WF of the river basin reached 5581 Mm3/year on average in the base scenario, with a high variability. The green component (3231 Mm3/year), mainly generated by rainfed crops (62%), was responsible for the great variability of the WF. The blue WF (1201 Mm3/year) was broken down into surface water (56%), renewable groundwater (20%) and non-renewable groundwater (24%), and it showed the generalized overexploitation of aquifers. Regarding the grey component (1150 Mm3/year), the study reveals that wastewater, especially phosphates (90%), was the main culprit producing water pollution in surface water bodies. The temporal evolution of the four scenarios highlighted the successfulness of the water treatment plans developed in the river basin, with a sharp decrease in the grey WF, as well as the stability of the WF and its three components in the future. So, the accounting of the three components of the WF in a basin was integrated into the management of water resources, it being possible to predict their evolution, their spatial characterisation and even their assessment in probabilistic terms. Then, the WF was incorporated into the set of indicators that usually is used in water resources management and hydrological planning.