Cost Estimation and Efficiency Analysis of Korean CANDU Spent Fuel Disposal Alternatives in Consideration of Future Price Volatility

摘要

In Korea, spent fuel is temporarily stored in spent fuel pools at nuclear reactor sites and it is predicted to become saturated between 2020 and 2024. For this reason, four disposal alternatives (KRS-1, A-KRS-1, A-KRS-21, and A-KRS-22) have been developed in order to carry out the direct disposal of the CANDU spent fuel. The objective of this study is to conduct cost efficiency analysis of the disposal alternatives in consideration of price volatility for the radioactive waste repository. To derive future price volatility, this study used the ARIMA model. As a result, A-KRS-1 is the most efficient in terms of price per bundle using 2015 price. As for the results using ARIMA model, except in the case of KRS-1, the cost per bundle of A-KRS-1, A-KRS-21, and A-KRS-22 is decreased. Cost estimation using ARIMA model shows little change or decreases in cost while cost estimation using inflation rates for 2020 resulted in approximately 7.2% increases compared to 2015 for all options. As for the results of scenario analysis, A-KRS-1 earned 8,160 points, while A-KRS-22 followed closely behind with 7,980 points among the total 24,300 points. The results of this study provide invaluable policy data for any nation considering the construction of spent nuclear fuel repository.