THE CONCEPT OF DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND ADAPTIVE CAPABILITY OF THE BIOSPHERE

摘要

When estimating the necessity to control negative consequences of climate changes (particularly due to anthropogenic impacts), the main question is whether a dangerous limit of the impacts exists (and how large it is) that can result in the destruction of the now existing climate system or in rather serious consequences for man and the biosphere. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) declares: "The final goal of the Convention...is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." In different international organizations dealing with the climate problem (IPCC, for example), the issue of the dangerous impact upon the climate system has long been treated as a political problem. For several years, the author has argued (mainly alone) that most of the issue - the concept itself, understanding approaches to determining a hazard and, finally, admissible and critical limit of the impact upon the climate system - is a direct problem for scientists (see, e.g., [4]). But only in 2001 did the following statement (corresponding to the author's urgent request) appear in the final version of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC: "Natural, technical, and social sciences can provide comprehensive information and evidence needed for definition of what constitutes a "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Certainly, such grounds are valuable conclusions obtained owing to sociopolitical processes, with consideration for such factors as progress, equality, and sustainability, as well as uncertainties and risks."