SCENARIOS OF THE MOSCOW REGION CLIMATE UNTIL 2050

摘要

Scenarios of climate change until 2050 are examined using three full models: ECHAM4, HadCM3, and CGCM2. Trends in the spatial and temporal variability of the climate in Russia in the 20th century are analyzed. It is shown that the spatial and temporal variance of air temperature grows faster than the mean air temperature. Special model characteristics of the climate in the Moscow region in the first half of the 21st century are calculated: the hydrothermal coefficient and characteristics of the period of heating. Model estimates of the hydrothermal coefficient over the growing season show its slight decrease in the Moscow region in the first half of the 21st century. The duration of the heating period is estimated to be reduced by 16 days and heat losses of buildings by 16%.