Estimation Of Dependence Of Seasonal Predictabilityof Meteorological Quantities In Different Regions Of The Northern Hemisphere On The El Nino-southern oscillation Phenomenon

摘要

Potential predictability and rms errors of ensemble forecasting of seasonal variability of the meteorological fields are estimated for different El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes in the winter and summer of 1983-2002. By means of composite analysis, the rms errors and the potential predictability index are compared for different ENSO episodes in seven regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatirudes. It is shown that the ENSO signals have a model-resolved response in the atmospheric circulation patterns in certain extratropical regions for some meteorological quantities. Geographic distribution of the potential predictability index shows that the maximum values occur near the centers of action of the main teleconnection systems.