Modelling non-motorised transport for applications in road investment appraisal

摘要

Non-motorised transport (NMT) modes contribute significantly to meeting the total demand for carrying goods and passengers in many countries, particularly in Asia and Africa. When planning investments in the roads sector, it is necessary to evaluate all costs and benefits associated with the proposed program or project over the expected life of the road. Road agency costs and road user costs constitute what is commonly referred to as the total road transport cost or the whole life cycle cost. Investment planning should aim at maximising benefits to society and stakeholders. This paper describes the development of new and improved approaches to NMT modelling on the basis of a large-scale study conducted in Bangladesh during the period from 1996 to 2000. A number of different strategies were deployed for modelling NMT free speeds, speed-flow relationships under heterogeneous traffic stream, and for the evaluation of NMT time and operating costs. The models developed in this research can be used in road investment planning models, such as the Highway Development and Management tool (HDM-4), for quantifying the different components of road user cost resulting from changes in road and traffic characteristics. This enables the estimation of benefits derived by both NMT and motorised transport from road improvements.