To what extent real exchange rate appreciation contributed to the shrinking of China's trade surpluses following the global financial crises?

摘要

In this paper, we investigate the extent to which real appreciation of the Chinese currency contributed in a meaningful way to the drop of its trade surpluses during the great recession subsequent to the financial and economic crises beginning in 2007. Chinese currency appreciated 14.75% in real terms during April 2008 and December 2011. The beginning of 2008 witnessed the most significant part of this real appreciation, after then the appreciations slowed through the crisis and recovery and has included intervals of real depreciation. Using data on exports and imports for Foreign owned firms in China and Chinese owned firms, disaggregated for 29 provinces, spanning the period 2007-2012, we find significant impact which differs from regions also. The results are robust to including a common factor and when compared with impact in the pre-crisis period, before 2006.