Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources

摘要

This work evaluates the potential contribution of renewable energy to energy security in Latin America (LA) in the short and long terms. Two main approaches are used. The first assesses the seasonality and variability of renewable energy resources in LA, as well as their possible complementarities. Variability indices are calculated to assess patterns of wind and solar power resources and a statistical analysis evaluates complementarities between hotspots in the region. The second determines possible impacts on the future long-term wind and solar resource complementarities due to climate change for those regions where complementarily was previously identified. For this, results of two General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used. Results show a higher variability for wind power when compared to solar power generation resources both on an hourly and monthly scales. Results also indicate that Brazil can play an important role regarding renewable energy integration in LA, since the country has the strongest capacity to complement and to be complemented by other LA countries. As for the analysis on climate change impacts, results indicate a strong negative impact on the complementarities in the 2071-2100 period, especially for RCP 8.5.