Spatial long-term forecasting of small power photovoltaic systems expansion

摘要

This paper presents an original forecasting methodology for achieving the spatiotemporal future long-term expansion of small power photovoltaic (PV) systems in a region, taking into account the population density, ground usage and the type of small PV power application adopted. This methodology comprises three stages: a first stage based on a suitable PV technological forecasting method with a group of experts; a second stage consisting of an innovative and iterative process based on elimination of the possible numerical inconsistencies achieved in the first stage; a third stage with a new method for achieving PV power density maps, using a geographical information system (CIS), that provides significant quantitative GIS information and visual and geographically-disaggregated representation of future small power PV systems expansion. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a real example for the region of La Rioja, Spain. In this example, four different combinations of PV systems and geographical zones were considered, and they are referred to as four "PV technologies" in the paper. The forecasted period range was 20 years with steps of 5 years. The results offer very valuable information for electric utilities, PV systems sales and installation agents, investors and regional authorities responsible for energy plans.