Is a Penny Spent a Penny Earned? Comparing Predicted to Actual Disability Insurance Savings in the Ticket to Work Program

摘要

This article compares Disability Insurance (DI) savings to those projected in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate accompanying the Ticket to Work (TTW) authorizing legislation. Enacted with the goal of promoting employment among DI beneficiaries, TTW savings were close to predicted savings, but economic conditions reduced the impact. These findings suggest vocational rehabilitation policies need to incorporate strategies to address economic downtowns if they are to promote long-term independence. This article highlights some of the challenges inherent to evaluations conducted without an experimental research design, while illustrating the potential of ex post analyses to assess whether expected savings materialize.