MODELING TRAVEL MODE CHOICES IN CONNECTION TO METRO STATIONS BY MIXED LOGIT MODELS: A CASE STUDY IN NANJING, CHINA

摘要

城市轨道交通多方式组合出行主要包括"接入-轨道交通-接出"三阶段，出行换乘涉及接入和接出方式选择。以往研究多聚焦于城市轨道单个的接入或接出方式选择分析，极少考虑考虑轨道接入与接出方式间的时空关联性。本文以南京轨道出行调査数据为基础，利用混合Logit有序模拟分析影响轨道个体通勤者接驳方式选择的重要因素。实测数据中，南京共有9种典型多方式轨道组合出行，接入以步行、自行车、电动车、公共汽车和小汽车5为主，接出以步行和公共汽车为主。模型有效、可靠性且适用，分析结果证实接入出行的满意度和时间约束对接出方式的选择有显著作用，同时步行、骑行、公交行车和私家车停车的换乘设施和环境都对通勤者的接驳方式选择有重要作用。最后，本文应不同组合轨道通勤人群的换乘需求，分类总结提升轨道通勤效率的政策，鼓励轨道交通多方式组合出行。%Urban rail transit trips usually involve multiple stages, which can be differentiated in terms of transfers that may involve distinct access and egress modes. Most studies on access and egress mode choices of urban rail transit have separately examined the two mode choices. However, in reality, the two choices are temporally correlated. This study, therefore, has sequentially applied the mixed logit to examine the contributors of access and egress mode choices of urban metro commuters using the data from a recent survey conducted in Nanjing, China. 9 typical multimodal combinations constituted by 5 main access modes (walk, bike, electric bike, bus, and car) and 2 main egress modes (walk and bus) are included in the study. The result proves that the model is reliable and reproductive in analyzing access/ egress mode choices of metro commuters. Estimation results prove the existence of time constraint and service satisfaction effect of access trip on commuters' egress mode choice and reveal the importance of transfer infrastructure and environments that serve for biking, walking, bus riding, and car parking in commuter's connection choice. Also, policy implications are segmentally concluded for the transfer needs of commuters in different groups to encourage the use of metro multimodal trips.