Modeling departure time choice of metro passengers with a smart corrected mixed logit model - A case study in Beijing

摘要

It is critical to improve the effectiveness of demand management in metro systems with passenger departure time choice exactly learned during peak hours. In this study, a practical framework is developed to model departure time choice of metro passengers during peak hours. First, various attributes that influence departure time choice of metro passengers are investigated and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solutions (TOPSIS) is used to identify these main attributes. Then, a mixed logit (ML) model of departure time choice that accounts for price endogeneity is developed. To calibrate the model, a stated preference (SP) survey based on D-efficient design is conducted in the Beijing metro system. It is proved that the corrected ML model outperforms the uncorrected ML model according to the collected 1152 sample data. An elasticity analysis of these main attributes is further conducted, which indicates that metro fare and departure time change influence passenger departure time choice more than crowdedness in Beijing metro. Knowledge of these preferences assists traffic managers in balancing passenger departure time to mitigate overcrowding during peak hours. Heterogeneity of passenger socioeconomic and trip characteristics is also concerned taking advantage of ML model. Finally, a ML based fare discount strategy to ease the crowdedness in Batong Line of Beijing metro is presented and evaluated via an existing simulation tool.