Conviction narrative theory: A new way to understand and anticipate risk and the future of the economy

摘要

Conviction narrative theory is a new theory of decision-making designed to understand consequential decision-making under real uncertainty. Rather than the usual focus on the presence or absence of "rational" capacities to make the best "unbiased" decisions it examines how, when people cannot know whether the outcome will be loss or gain, people manage to act at all. They do so drawing on evolved human capacities to combine feeling and cognitive capacities to imagine the future and feel confident about their narrative as to how it will unfold.