Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot

摘要

Rapid reaction in the face of an epidemic is a key element in effective and efficient control; this is especially important when the disease has severe public health or economic consequences. Determining an appropriate level of response requires rapid estimation of the rate of spread of infection from limited disease distribution data. Generally, the techniques used to estimate such spatial parameters require detailed spatial data at multiple time points; such data are often time-consuming and expensive to collect. Here we present an alternative approach that is computationally efficient and only requires spatial data from a single time point, hence saving valuable time at the start of the epidemic. By assuming that fundamental spatial statistics are near equilibrium, parameters can be estimated by minimizing the expected rate of change of these statistics, hence conserving the general spatial pattern. Although applicable to both ecological and epidemiological data, here we focus on disease data from computer simulations and real epidemics to show that this method produces reliable results that could be used in practical situations.