Road traffic accident prediction modelling: a literature review

摘要

This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on road traffic accident prediction models (APMs) and crash modification factors (CMFs). The focus is on motorways and higher ranked rural roads and the study was performed within a European road authorities' research project. The priorities for the review were determined by a questionnaire survey on model availability and needs, addressed to national road authorities in Europe and worldwide. The salient literature was reviewed and existing models were assessed in terms of theoretical approaches, model characteristics, implementation conditions, data requirements and available results. The review of CMFs focused on their background and development, the various methods for developing them and the key issues in their application. The review resulted in the development of an APM and CMF inventory that forms the basis for an online repository, with the aim of assisting the practical application of gathered experience on accident prediction.