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Comparison of Prediction Models for Mortality Related to Injuries from Road Traffic Accidents after Correcting for Undersampling

机译:纠正欠采样后道路交通事故损伤预测模型的预测模型比较

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摘要

In this study, four models—logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), linear support vector machine (SVM), and radial basis function (RBF)-SVM—were compared for their accuracy in determining mortality caused by road traffic injuries. They were tested using five years of national-level data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s (KDCA) National Hospital Discharge In-Depth Survey (2013 through to 2017). Model performance was measured for accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and Brier score metrics using classification analysis that included characteristics of patients, accidents, injuries, and illnesses. Due to the number of variables and differing units, the rates of survival and mortality related to road traffic accidents were imbalanced, so the data was corrected and standardized before the classification models’ performances were compared. Using the importance analysis, the main diagnosis, the type of injury, the site of the injury, the type of injury, the operation status, the type of accident, the role at the time of the accident, and the sex were selected as the analysis factors. The biggest contributing factor was the role in the accident, which is the driver, and the major sites of the injuries were head injuries and deep injuries. Using selected factors, comparisons of the classification performance of each model indicated RBF-SVM and RF models were superior to the others. Of the SVM models, the RBF kernel model was superior to the linear kernel model; it can be inferred that the performance of the high-dimensional transformed RBF model is superior when the dimension is complex because of the use of multiple variables. The findings suggest there are limitations to analyses involving imbalanced, multidimensional original data, such as data on road traffic mortality. Thus, analyses must be performed after imbalances are corrected.
机译:在这项研究中,比较了四种模型逻辑回归(LR),随机森林(RF),线性支持向量机(SVM)和径向基函数(RBF)-SVM-SM-SVM - 以准确性确定道路交通损伤引起的死亡率。他们在韩国疾病控制和预防局(KDCA)国家医院排放深入调查(2013年至2017年)中使用五年的国家级数据进行了测试。测量模型性能以测量准确性,精度,召回,F1分数和使用分类分析的Brier评分指标,包括患者,事故,伤害和疾病的特征。由于变量和不同单位的数量,与道路交通事故有关的存活率和死亡率不平衡,因此在比较分类模型的性能之前,数据被纠正和标准化。利用重要性分析,主要诊断,伤害的类型,伤害部位,伤害类型,运作状态,事故类型,事故时的作用,以及性别的作用,选择了分析因素。最大的贡献因素是事故中的作用,这是驾驶员,伤害的主要景点是头部伤害和深伤。使用所选因素,每个模型的分类性能的比较指示RBF-SVM和RF模型优于其他模型。在SVM模型中,RBF内核模型优于线性内核模型;可以推断,由于使用多个变量,维度复杂的高维变换的RBF模型的性能优越。结果表明,分析涉及不平衡的多维原始数据,例如道路交通死亡率的数据存在局限性。因此,必须在纠正失衡后进行分析。

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