A novel method for incorporating weather effects in composite system adequacy evaluation

摘要

The proposed method can recognize regional weather aspects including those situations in which transmission lines traverse several geographical regions which undergo different weather conditions. The method uses a Monte Carlo approach which can be readily applied to large-scale transmission systems. Case studies conducted using a program developed at the University of Saskatchewan show that neglecting all consideration of weather effects can lead to an optimistic assessment of system adequacy while ignoring regional weather conditions can result in overestimation of the resulting failure bunching effects due to adverse weather. The effects of weather variations on annualized indices are discussed, and the need to establish suitable and practical procedures for collecting adverse weather data which can be utilized in realistic composite system adequacy assessment is addressed. The modeling procedure also provides a realistic framework for practical data collection.