A framework for incorporating environmental factors into the utility planning process

摘要

A technique is presented for modeling and studying the effects of uncertain environmental factors in the electric utility planning process. This takes into account the traditional utility planning process and shows how it can be facilitated with the use of advanced decision analysis tools. The concept of influence diagram is introduced in the utility planning arena. Using the interdependent data analysis (IDA) technique, a method for providing the probability estimates necessary for the influence diagram is shown. The IDA technique allows the use of expert opinions and intuitive judgments to develop the necessary probability estimates. A sample case study is presented where the issue of emissions trading is incorporated. A base case coal and gas option is compared against a gas turbine alternative. Energy costs from these two options are compared by taking into account the capital, licensing, fuel, operation and maintenance, and emissions related costs.