Development and validation of a physically-based computer model for predicting winter electric heating loads

摘要

This paper presents the development and validation of a physically-based computer model for predicting electric heating loads on distribution feeders. A practical method of obtaining model parameter values is given. Simulation results are given and compared with actual electric utility data from a distribution feeder in a residential area. The proposed model has been found to be useful for predicting the magnitude of the utility line currents associated with the cold load pickup of heating loads as well as for load management and load forecasting purposes.