Application of fuzzy multi-objective decision making in spatialload forecasting

摘要

Electric distribution system planning is to provide an economicnexpansion plan to meet the future demands in its territory. A forecastnof the future electric demand and its geographic distribution is anprerequisite for distribution planning. The quality and accuracy of thisnforecast have a large influence on the quality of the electricalndistribution system planning. Spatial load forecasting emerges tonprovide a more accurate prediction of both the magnitudes and locationsnof future electric loads. Since the load growth pattern is dominated bynits land-use (residential, commercial, or industrial), the land usagenstudy of small area is important to capture the future loads accurately.nThere are many factors which will affect the customer land-use decision,nfor example, distance to highway, distance to urban pole, and the costs.nThe customer's preferences can be estimated based on these objectivenfactors. Then the land utilization and the electricity consumption cannbe estimated. Since the objectives sometimes are conflicting with eachnother, it can be cumbersome to use conventional cost function approachnto determine the land usage decision. This paper applies a fuzzynmulti-objective decision making scheme to the urban redevelopment andnspatial load forecasting, which is more naturally and straight forwardlynused to handle the spatial load forecasting problem. An example is usednto illustrate the proposed methodology