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Application of fuzzy multi-objective decision making in spatial load forecasting

机译:模糊多目标决策在空间负荷预测中的应用

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Electric distribution system planning is to provide an economic expansion plan to meet the future demands in its territory. A forecast of the future electric demand and its geographic distribution is a prerequisite for distribution planning. The quality and accuracy of this forecast have a large influence on the quality of the electrical distribution system planning. Spatial load forecasting emerges to provide a more accurate prediction of both the magnitudes and locations of future electric loads. Since the load growth pattern is dominated by its land-use (residential, commercial, or industrial), the land usage study of small area is important to capture the future loads accurately. There are many factors which will affect the customer land-use decision, for example, distance to highway, distance to urban pole, and the costs. The customer's preferences can be estimated based on these objective factors. Then the land utilization and the electricity consumption can be estimated. Since the objectives sometimes are conflicting with each other, it can be cumbersome to use conventional cost function approach to determine the land usage decision. This paper applies a fuzzy multi-objective decision making scheme to the urban redevelopment and spatial load forecasting, which is more naturally and straight forwardly used to handle the spatial load forecasting problem. An example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.
机译:配电系统规划旨在提供经济扩展计划,以满足其领土内的未来需求。对未来电力需求及其地理分布的预测是进行配电计划的前提。此预测的质量和准确性对配电系统规划的质量有很大的影响。出现空间负荷预测以提供对未来电负荷的大小和位置的更准确的预测。由于负荷增长模式主要由其土地用途(住宅,商业或工业用途)决定,因此小面积土地用途研究对于准确捕获未来负荷很重要。有许多因素会影响客户的土地使用决策,例如,距高速公路的距离,距城市两极的距离以及成本。可以基于这些客观因素来估计客户的偏好。然后可以估算土地利用和电力消耗。由于目标有时相互冲突,因此使用常规成本函数方法来确定土地使用决策可能很麻烦。本文将模糊的多目标决策方案应用于城市重建和空间负荷预测,更自然,直接地解决了空间负荷预测问题。举一个例子来说明所提出的方法。

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