Winners or losers? Workers in transition economies under globalisation

摘要

The objective of this study is to investigate if workers in transition economies have been winners or losers of globalisation. We base our key argument on the postulates of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, whereby countries benefit from the production and export of the good produced with the abundant factor of production. We analyse the period 1996-2016 in 25 transition economies of Central, Southeast Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Globalisation is represented through the manufacturing export and FDI in GDP and is argued to be endogenous, at least partially, to workers' conditions. Political stability and rule of law are used as exclusion restrictions. We rely on the conditional mixed process procedure to estimate the coefficients. Results suggest that workers in Central European transition economies are the winners of globalisation as it created mainly high-skill and well-paid jobs. Workers in the Commonwealth of Independent States are the losers of globalisation which likely happened through reducing wages, offering inadequate working conditions and dampening marketplace bargaining power. Finally, workers in Southeast Europe stand in the middle: they are winners as globalisation created expanded economic opportunities for them, but losers in the sense of workplace structure and wages.