Multiagent Bayesian forecasting of structural time-invariant dynamic systems with graphical models

摘要

Time series are found widely in engineering and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time series. We model the domain as a dynamic multiply sectioned Bayesian network (DMSBN) and populate the domain by a set of proprietary, cooperative agents. We propose an algorithm suite that allows the agents to perform one-step forecasts with distributed probabilistic inference. We show that as long as the DMSBN is structural time-invariant (possibly parametric time-variant), the forecast is exact and its time complexity is exponentially more efficient than using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). In comparison with independent DBN-based agents, multiagent DMSBNs produce more accurate forecasts. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated through experiments on a supply chain testbed.