The Potential of Electrifying China's Energy Use: an Analysis Based on STIRPAT Model

摘要

China's State Grid Corporation proposed the implementation of "electrifying energy use" strategy in 2013, and strives to promote the use of electricity instead of coal and other fossil fuels in energy consumption, and ultimately achieve a fundamental change in energy development. We use the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model to quantify the potential of electrifying energy service in China. The extended STIRPAT model is applied to analyze the relationship between electricity demand and the influential factors (e.g. population, economic activity, electricity intensity, and energy structure). In order to effectively avoid multicollinearity among variables, the regression coefficients are calculated by using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) technique. Moreover, we use a hybrid model to project the Business as usual (BAU) development of the above explanatory variables. We then develop three scenarios to project and analyze the future potentials of electrification in China. From the projection results, the potential for electrification shows a trend that the growth rate is slow at first but accelerates later. The governmental policy support has the greatest impact on the potential for electrification, and the effect is most pronounced. The influence of technological level on the potential of electrification is gradually weakening. When China's economic growth slows down, the potential for growth in electrification will slow down, but the level of technology will slow the trend of slowing growth in electrification potential. Finally, the sensitivity and contribution of each factor are analyzed, based on which some suggestions to promote the development of electrification are put forward.