Arctic futures: conceptualizations and images of a changing Arctic

摘要

The future of the Arctic is an issue of increasing concern. During the last five years, a large number of reports, books, and articles have appeared which directly focus on what happens in the Arctic. This article summarizes the findings of an assessment of more than 50 such studies. It aims to identify the basic assumptions, analytical approaches, and future images that characterize current thinking about the Arctic. The article shows that the studies are diverse in thematic scope and background. Different methodologies are applied to envision the future of the Arctic. The future images range from boom to doom, from escalating conflicts to peaceful collaboration. There is a strong agreement that the Arctic is subject to profound change, driven by developments outside the region. Simultaneously, the studies display the many uncertainties that the future of the Arctic is imbued with. This article does not attempt to sketch an alternative version of the future of the Arctic, but rather to highlight how future studies can stimulate debate, create preparedness for change, offer direction, and inform policy.