PJM’s latest load forecast indicates slower growth than 2018 forecast

摘要

PJM’s 2019 Load Forecast Report shows a 0.6% year-on-year increasein summer peakload in 2019, but S&P Global Platts Analytics expectsincreased availability of inexpensive natural gas generation tooutweigh increased demand in setting prices.This past summer’s metered peakload totaled about 150.5 GW,down from the 2018 Load Forecast Report’s projected 152.1 GW, but thereport released Thursday projects the summer 2019 peakload to totalabout 151.4 GW.At PJM West Hub, PJM’s most liquid location, day-ahead on-peaklocational marginal prices averaged $36.75/MWh this past Junethrough August. Asked whether the latest forecast, if proven correct,might strengthen power prices in the region, Kieran Kemmerer, a PlattsAnalytics power analyst, said his organization “anticipates slightlylower on-peak power prices … primarily a result of increased gas-firedgeneration capacity.”