Peace is in Movement: A Dynamical Systems Perspective on the Emergence of Peace in Mozambique

摘要

The Mozambique peace process is one of the most promising cases of an intervention strategy that transformed a protracted, intractable conflict into a resilient social system of sustainable peace. After 16 years of extremely violent civil war, a series of semi-official interventions led to a successful transition to peace in 1992, much to the surprise of the international community. This article uses the dynamical systems perspective to explore how the escalation, maintenance, and transformation of the Mozambican conflict may be understood and systematized. First, this article analyzes how the social system lost its adaptability after the country had gained independence, and illustrates how a strong enmity system was created and maintained in the country. This article discusses how various counterintuitive conflict transformation initiatives changed the political landscape and promoted the re-establishment of adaptive functions of the social system, moving Mozambique from war toward peace. This article analyzes political, cultural, and symbolic aspects of the conflict transformation, with an emphasis on how peace was institutionalized in the country. The article concludes by outlining some general principles of the dynamical perspective on the formation and dissolution of intractable conflicts, based on this case analysis.