Vulnerability of the Indian economy to tensions in the Middle East: impacts and responses

摘要

This paper develops four possible scenarios of the occurrence or non-occurrence of a military intervention in Iraq and corresponding oil supply and price scenarios. The impacts of these upon the Indian economy in macroeconomic and intra-sectoral terms are assessed and quantified. The paper concludes with a quantitative and qualitative assessment of response strategy options for India to an oil supply shock at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels.