Optimal-Mix-Model Structure as an Alternative Methodological Structure for the Nigerian Energy Calculator 2050 (NECAL2050)

摘要

Energy supply is majorly determined by the model adopted in a particular economy, which captures the basic features and conditions of that economy. Usually, inadequate capacity of developing countries in putting in place these energy models make them dependent on assistance from developed countries in this regard; though in most cases there are experiences of dissonance. The Nigerian Energy Calculator 2050 (NECAL2050) is one such model developed by Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) with technical assistance from the Department for Energy and Climate Change of the United Kingdom. This paper analyses the modelling structure of NECAL2050 and details some of the most important locally existing as well as changing conditions in Nigeria (such as agricultural demand for energy and the role of renewables) that the model fails to include. In light of this, an alternative modelling structure (Optimal-Mix-Model) is proposed, which includes the missing ingredients and Nigeria's local conditions.