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Sovereign risk: constitutions rule

机译:主权风险:宪法规则

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摘要

This paper models the executive's choice of whether to reschedule external debt as the outcome of an intra-governmental negotiation process. The key issue the paper tries to explain is the stark difference in default rates between the group of developing countries that have presidential forms of government and those that are parliamentary (6.0%/year vs 1.6%/year). This difference is present in spite of the fact that the latter group tends to have a somewhat higher turnover of the executive. The conditions under which parliamentary democracies will deliver lower probabilities of default than presidential countries are derived in a model with opportunistic politicians. Empirically, I find that middle-income democracies with parliamentary regimes, more checks on the executive, lower turnover in leadership and coalition governments show lower default propensities.
机译:本文模拟了高管选择是否将外债重新安排为政府内部谈判过程的结果。本文试图解释的关键问题是,具有总统制政府和议会制的发展中国家之间的违约率存在明显差异(6.0%/年与1.6%/年)。尽管存在后者差异,但后者往往具有较高的执行人员流动率。在机会主义政治家的模型中,推导出了议会民主制提供比总统制更低的违约概率的条件。从经验上看,我发现具有议会制的中等收入民主国家,对行政部门的更多检查,领导层的营业额降低以及联合政府的表现出较低的违约倾向。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Oxford Economic Papers》 |2010年第1期|p.62-85|共24页
  • 作者

    Emanuel Kohlscheen;

  • 作者单位
  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-18 01:06:37

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