The Time Has Come: Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis in the Organizational Sciences

摘要

The use of Bayesian methods for data analysis is creating a revolution in fields ranging from genetics to marketing. Yet, results of our literature review, including more than 10,000 articles published in 15 journals from January 2001 and December 2010, indicate that Bayesian approaches are essentially absent from the organizational sciences. Our article introduces organizational science researchers to Bayesian methods and describes why and how they should be used. We use multiple linear regression as the framework to offer a step-by-step demonstration, including the use of software, regarding how to implement Bayesian methods. We explain and illustrate how to determine the prior distribution, compute the posterior distribution, possibly accept the null value, and produce a write-up describing the entire Bayesian process, including graphs, results, and their interpretation. We also offer a summary of the advantages of using Bayesian analysis and examples of how specific published research based on frequentist analysis-based approaches failed to benefit from the advantages offered by a Bayesian approach and how using Bayesian analyses would have led to richer and, in some cases, different substantive conclusions. We hope that our article will serve as a catalyst for the adoption of Bayesian methods in organizational science research.