Confusion of forecasts (and) forecasts of confusion in energy sector

摘要

By analyzing forecasts of total energy consumption, and particularly oil consumption, in the present crisesrntime the author came to conclusion, partly based on previous analyses of movements in energy consumption,rnthat there is an evident discrepancy between current trends and previous forecasts.rnThe discrepancy is stemming from slow down in energy consumption on one side, partly resulting from morernefficient energy use, instigated for different reasons which are not specifically analyzed here, and economicrnreasons on the other side, which are very heterogeneous: "overheated demand" led to high energyrnconsumption in previous period, but eventually it paved the way to economic crises, the cause roots of whichrnhave not been eliminated and the crises persists, so we cannot expect fast recovery and return ofrnconsumption on pre-crises level in the near future.rnThe author substantiates his thesis with the data in the scope sufficient to prove his statements.