Seaborne Products Exports

摘要

Growth in global seaborne products trade in 2018 was limited on the exporter side chiefly by falling shipments out of the FSU, Singapore and Europe. In 2019, firm growth of 9% in Middle Eastern exports is expected to be a key driver of global growth in seaborne products trade, with support from a 14% increase in regional refinery capacity underpinning this. The potential return of some arbitrage opportunities to Asia could also provide some support, with global seaborne products imports initially projected to increase by 3.0% in 2019. Looking to 2020, further expansion in Middle Eastern refinery capacity (notably in Kuwait) is expected to help drive additional volumes, whilst the impact of the IMO's 2020 global sulphur cap is also projected to affect products trade patterns. With global demand for gasoil expected to increase significantly in 2020, refineries in the US, Middle East and China in particular are expected to boost gasoil exports, with the US well positioned to raise supply due to the high complexity of the country's refineries, whilst utilisation rates are also likely to increase. US seaborne products exports are initially projected to increase by 7% in 2020, with Middle Eastern and Chinese volumes projected to increase 14% and 12% respectively.