Proposition: global effort to model largest oil fields

摘要

Oil is the world's most important commodity, and the need to understand the long-term supply is widely recognized. The authors confirm the work of others that the energy future depends upon a handful of irreplaceable and aging fields, many of which are in unknown states of depletion. It is time for the world to better understand global oil productive capacity in order to take appropriate measures. The authors propose that the key to this understanding is the modeling of the largest fields. The key observation behind this proposal is that over time the proportionate contribution of large fields to world oil supply has been generally consistent. The authors have proposed conventional modeling methods that require access to primary data that can reliably forecast future oil supply. The inevitable transition from an oil-based economy is one of the greatest global challenges and deserves a similar level of attention to nuclear proliferation, global warming, and the current economic crisis.