Oil marketers, and perhaps even refiners, may hope that the latest short-term energy outlook issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is not on target. The report posits that retail gasoline prices will remain above $4.00/gal until the fourth quarter of 2009, and suggests that tight global supplies will keep crude oil prices lofty as well. There are the usual criticisms of the forecast, with marketers prone to suggesting that "blue sky" economic numbers are still ingrained within the model. But the bullish investment crowd counters that EIA has consistently "underprojected" crude and products numbers in various forecasts released in the last two years. If EIA's numbers are on the mark, the total annual 2008 U.S. gasoline bill could be about $543 billion and next year would see $572 billion spent just on motor fuel. The previous record (in 2007) was in the neighborhood of $397.2 billion, according to a blend of EIA demand data and OPIS/AAA retail numbers.
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