Analysis on the utilization and carrying capacity of coastal tidal flat in bays around the Bohai Sea

摘要

The utilization and protection of tidal flat play a crucial role in the sustainable development of coastal areas. This study aims to propose an evaluation index system model for the carrying capacity of the tidal flat resources in bays around the Bohai Sea. Indexes are selected under the framework of DSI (Drivers-State-Impact), considering the socio-economic driving factors, resource conditions, the influence of shoreline change on hydrodynamic environment and the utilization type associating with possible ecological impact. Basic indexes are quantified using publicly available statistical information, hydrodynamic numerical simulation and satellite image interpretation, while the weight of each index is determined using the entropy weight method. The historical changes and future trends of shoreline and the utilization type of the coastal tidal flat in last decades are analyzed, and the carrying capacity of the tidal flat resources around the Bohai Sea has been evaluated. The coast around the Bohai Sea is divided into three areas, the Liaodong Bay, the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay. The results show that the carrying capacity of the Laizhou Bay is better than the other areas. Moreover, the carrying capacity of the three areas showed a large decline from 2003 to 2013, while the decline slowed from 2013 to 2018 and is expected to increase slightly from 2018 to 2028.