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Don't oversimplify accidents

机译:不要过分简化事故

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摘要

There are two very common errors in the way people perceive accidents. Either they see them at one extreme as rare, chance chains of events and circumstances which are beyond both prediction and control or, at the other end of the spectrum, they see them as quite simple events with single causes.rnIn reality nearly all accidents - even mundane ones - turn out to be as complex as they are preventable. But failure to understand the complexity of accidents leads both to missed opportunities for prevention as well as over-simple and inappropriate prescriptions to improve safety and reliability.rnOne of the reasons for an over-simple, uni-causal view of accidents among many non-experts is that few lay people have ever had to undertake an accident investigation.
机译:人们对事故的看法有两个很常见的错误。他们要么在极端情况下将它们视为罕见的事件和情况的机会链,这些事件和情况都超出了预测和控制范围,或者在频谱的另一端,则将它们视为具有单一原因的非常简单的事件。实际上,几乎所有事故-甚至平凡的-事实也是如此,因为可以预防。但是,如果不了解事故的复杂性,就会导致错过预防的机会,以及过分简单和不恰当的处方来提高安全性和可靠性。rn许多非国家/地区对事故的看法过于简单,单一原因的原因之一专家认为,很少有外行人曾经进行过事故调查。

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