Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy

摘要

This paper assesses the implications of U.S. budget and current account deficits for financial and economic stability. The primary focus is on the behavior of interest rates in response to deficits, then effects on the economy through the financial system. The paper argues, and shows with empirical evidence, including from a large-scale econometric model, that expected, but not realized, budget deficits affect interest rates. Under certain circumstances, particularly near full employment, sustained budget and current account deficits can lead to financial disarray and a severely constrained economy.