Investor trading behavior on agricultural future prices

摘要

Behavioral finance researches suggest that futures trading behavior exerts obvious over-speculation bias to impact future prices. In this paper, we systematically investigate how investor trading behavior comoves with agricultural future prices. This paper yields new insights into the decompositions of investor trading behavior and distinguishes the performance differences between expected and unexpected investor trading behaviors. Furthermore, this paper sheds new lights on the heterogeneous functions of buyer-initiated trading behavior and seller-initiated trading behavior on agricultural future prices. Collectively, our results can be taken as direct and strong evidence of the significant impacts of investor trading behavior on agricultural future prices.