A route to more tractable expert advice

摘要

When a volcano became restless on the small, populated island of Montserrat, West Indies, in 1995, there was debate among scientists: did the bursts of steam and ash presage an explosive and deadly eruption, or would the outcome be more benign? Authorities on the island, a British overseas territory, needed advice to determine warning levels, and whether travel restrictions and evacuations were needed. The British government asked me, as an independent volcanologist, to help reconcile differing views within the group.