Waiting for politics to catch up

摘要

The problem seems as imponderable as Bilbo's riddle to Gollum in The Hobbit: "What have I got in my pocket?" A state has a concealed object that it claims is a nuclear weapon. It wishes to provide proof, but the objects design is largely secret and inspectors are forbidden from making measurements that might reveal classified information. Glaser and colleagues' ingenious solution is an unclassified measurement that provides statistical confidence that the object is identical to an agreed 'template'. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the technology of arms control is some years ahead of its politics.