OIL MARKETS

摘要

China has been a key pillar supporting incremental global oil demand since the early-2000s, but as growth there begins to soften, attention is gradually shifting to India. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India's oil consumption over the first three quarters of 2015 grew 200K b/d y-o-y and picked up to its quickest pace in over a decade earlier this year, driven by diesel and gasoline needs. India is set to surpass Japan as the world's third largest oil consumer next year at 4.19M b/d, after U.S. and China. Japan through energy efficiency initiatives will scale its oil demand down to 4.16M b/d, IEA data showed. While India's growth rate currently lags China, its oil demand still has ample room to accelerate. The World Bank estimates China's population at around 1.36 billion, and IEA in is November monthly report forecasts its 2016 gasoline demand at about 2.5M b/ d (+110K b/d y-o-y). In comparison, India's population is at 1.3 billion and its 2016 gasoline demand is projected at only 20% of China's at 551K b/d (+47K b/d y-o-y).